Tottenham Hotspur come home after a disappointing trip to Belgium, while Brighton Hove Albion come to London after drawing West Brom, who luck is about to change?
Tottenham Hotspur have at times been incredibly good this season, such as their 11 goals in two matches at St. Mary’s and at Old Trafford; other times, they have not been as good, maybe even unlucky – see the dropped points from winning positions in the Newcastle and West Ham United matches. Likewise, Brighton were excellent winning on the road at Newcastle 3-0 and fought hard in a 4-2 loss at Everton – who also beat Tottenham.
While a draw against Palace seemed to right the ship, as Spurs win at Burnley had done; both teams then lost momentum dropping points in matches they should have each won. First Burnley draw at home to newly promoted West Brom, while Tottenham fell in Belgium to Royal Antwerp in Europa League. With those lost opportunities, we have two teams looking to jump start their seasons for different reasons, but both seeking the same result, three points.
What has been the story of the Brighton season thus far and what should we look for heading into the match Sunday evening in north London at the Seagulls take on Spurs at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium? Read on to catch up on Brighton, Spurs, and their recent history.
Brighton Hove Albion, Almost There
In some respects, Brighton’s season has been terribly like Spurs, as it has been the lapses in concentration and in some instances bad luck that has bit the Gulls. Brighton is the only team in the league to have conceded more set piece goals than the six Tottenham have given up, with seven set piece goals against. Like Spurs, Brighton has been stiff other than those set pieces conceding 12 on the season, which is only 5 from six games in open play.
Like Tottenham, three of those set piece goals against have been penalty kicks, while Brighton have also had 2 penalty kicks awarded, for five penalties for or against Brighton in just six games this season. Also, like Spurs, Brighton have one shutout in the League the season in the Seagulls 0-3 win at Newcastle.
All this is to say that Brighton is relatively stout defensively but are prone to lapses and can be had. This is particularly true with Lewis Dunk – the club’s all-time leader in Premier League wins – out following a red card against Palace earlier this season.
Offensively, Brighton have managed to score in every game, despite having a difficult time shooting on target. According to the Premier League, Brighton have taken 80 shots this season, for an average just over 13 per game. However, only 23 of those 80 shots have ended up on target, which is less than4 per game at under 30%.
Even though Brighton has struggled to keep their shots on target at 1.67 goals per game on those 13 shots, the Seagulls are going with a quantity over quality philosophy. Neal Maupay leads the way in both shots and goals, with 19 shots and 4 goals on the season. No other Gull has more than 1 goal, but both Leandro Trossard (15) and Yves Bissouma (11) have more than 10 shots each and a goal.
Ultimately, the quantity comes from a concerted effort to hold some possession and take the game to their opponents. Averaging more than 510 passes per match with ~83% accuracy, Brighton are not careless with the ball. This is an area where the loss of Dunk may hurt Brighton as he is third on the team with 340 passes on the season.
Brighton can be careless in one area – and it is connected to the lack of concentration tied to the set piece goals conceded – which is discipline. Brighton has only committed 45 fouls on the season, which is less than 8 fouls per match, a low number for the League.
Brighton have also picked up 12 cards this season, 10 yellow cards and two red cards. That is essentially 1 card per half for the team, which has led to the squad being short and being without Dunk for the Spurs game. If push comes to shove in this match, maybe Tottenham can ruffle the Seagulls feathers and get them off their game.
Tottenham vs Brighton
Tottenham Hotspur have faced Brighton Hove Albion the fewest times of any current team in the Premier League and it is not even close. Tottenham have played Brighton 18 times overall, the next lowest total number of games for a competition in the League at current is Sheffield United who Spurs have faced 34 times. That is almost twice as many times as Spurs have faced Brighton, who despite being in the topflight for a couple of seasons now are still very much new boys to the Premier League.
Mostly due to the limited number of times Tottenham have faced Brighton, there is no current Premier League club Tottenham average more points per game against than Brighton, averaging 2.17 points per game. Again, this measure is not close, as Tottenham does not average more than 2 points per contest against any other current Premier League side.
Tottenham also have the highest win ratio against Brighton of any current Premier League club at 66.7%. Overall Spurs have won 12 matches against only three defeats and three draws, all time. Further in the last six games between the clubs Tottenham have won four, drawn one and lost one. All this should mean Tottenham are heavy favorites against currently 16th place Brighton, however, recent history can be deceiving.
Despite winning four of the last six matchups with Brighton, Tottenham have a goal difference of zero in those six games. We cannot forget the heavy defeat Brighton inflicted on Tottenham in October of 2019, toward the end of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign as manager. Spurs won the earlier match-up in April and won again in December to win two out of three last year against Brighton.
However, Brighton outscored Tottenham 4-3 in those three matches, again thanks to that 3-0 thrashing. However, that December game where Spurs bounced back to win with a late Erikson goal was the last time Tottenham faced Brighton. After playing three times in calendar year 2019, Tottenham have not played Brighton once, until here the first of November.
In the end the question on Sunday is going to come down to who can keep their focus and concentration the longest and who blinks first. It seems likely a set piece will have a big part to play, as will the barrage of shots Brighton want to launch. Who controls possession and forces the other to adapt with have the upper hand, and at HotspurHQ we hope and thing it will be Spurs, who come out 3-1 winners to break the duck against the gulls at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.