Sunday afternoon in north London, Tottenham Hotspur are back from the break, hosting West Ham United in a derby to start a stretch of seven games over the next three weeks.
Tottenham Hotspur host West Ham United on Match week 5 of the Premier League, hoping to begin their first winning streak of the season having beaten Manchester United 1-6 before the break at Old Trafford. However, West Ham United is in some solid form of their own. After dropping their first two matches of the season, Hammers have managed two straight wins by a combined score of 7-0.
With two teams confident from their most recent outings and a London derby to boot, expect a hard fought, contest. For Tottenham, the keys to the match will revolve around three things: stopping Antonio and/or Jarred Bowen on the break, unlocking the nine-man double line, and managing their emotional game. Whereas West Ham will try to get out early and take the lead by looking to hit on the counter as they maintain their lines. Which team; Tottenham or West Ham manages to accomplish their keys will win the match.
Tottenham currently 7th on seven points can move as high as second with a win over West Ham. The Hammers could jump from the bottom half to a Europa League spot for next season if they were to win. While Tottenham Hotspur swept the series, last year winning 2-3 at Olympic Stadium in Jose Mourinho’s first game with the club and then 2-0 at home after the restart in June.
One only need look back one more game, however, to see where West Ham became the first away team to win at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium April 27, 2019. On that day, the same kind of plan that David Moyes and company will try to lay out unfolded as the lines held, Antonio got behind the defense and blasted home after the hour. Hammers held on after that goal and left with the victory. Let us look at what West Ham needs to do to walk away winners again and what Tottenham needs to do to make it three-straight over the Hammers.
West Ham wants the Lead
If you include the League Cup, West Ham has four wins on the season, and they all have something in common, early goals and multiple goals for the Hammers. Against Wolves, Jarrod Bowen scored within the first 20 minutes and then again within the first 15 minutes of the second half just before the hour mark.
Against Leicester City in their last match, Antonio scored in under 15 minutes and Pablo Fornals made the lead two before the half. Hammers went on to win 3 nil with Bowen scoring the third late on as Leicester City pushed. Against Wolves, a Raul Jimenez own goal and a late injury time score by Haller flattered the score line, but the point was clear.
In the two losses both Everton and Arsenal scored first making it more difficult for West Ham to implement their low block counter strategy. While West Ham did come back to tie both matches, they again fell behind and were unable to come back twice against either Arsenal – in league – or Everton – in the League Cup. Regardless the lesson here should be clear, do not fall behind West Ham, as that plays right into their hands.
Hammers in a Line and Counter Formation
What makes West Ham so hard to come back against is what really makes them a poor come from behind team, their low block formation. David Moyes has been playing West Ham with five in the back and then four in the midfield in front of them. Most times this would leave a lonely striker on an island, but Antonio is not your everyday striker with his movement and pace.
Angelo Ogbonna is not quite your 1980s style sweeper in the middle of the back five, but he is close, with Aaron Creswell and Fabian Balbuena flanking him. There are typically two outside fullbacks then wide of Creswell and Balbuena. What makes the defense even more difficult to penetrate is tackle read Tomas Soucek and England International Declan Rice playing the two central midfielders in front of the back line.
The point is West Ham is sound defensively and if they can maintain their integrity, they will be hard to break down and defeat. As Spurs push further and further into the attacking half, it opens things up more and more for Antonio or Bowen to strike on the counter. The Hammers hit nearly 60 long balls per game, so the runners get their chances, and the defense must stay alert.
Spurs Unlocking West Ham
Tottenham Hotspur is going to have to find to break down the ten men that are likely to spend most of the game in the defensive half. Against Wolves and Leicester, the Hammers held 37% and then 30% possession but won by a combined 7-0. Those are two high scoring teams and neither managed to score, despite both falling behind early and it cost them.
The keys to breaking down a disciplined defense is getting them to move. Pochettino used to take Christian Eriksen and deploy him centrally to grab the strong central defender or midfielder and drag them out wide. If the defender bit, it would create space and Spurs could start to break down the defense, which was now numbers down.
However, we have seen this season that Harry Kane can do the same thing when he starts to drop deep. Kane draws even more attention than Eriksen used too and his vision with the ball at his feet is quite good. We have seen this work produce six assists.
Whereas Eriksen typically had the defensive midfielder follow him creating a crack in the defense, Harry Kane usually has a center-half tracking him. If Kane is given space anywhere in the attack half of the field, he is a treat to shoot, so the defender must run with him. Now that crack Eriksen was making is a massive gap for Heung-Min Son, Lucas Moura, and soon Gareth Bale to run through.
This plan worked well against Southampton as Spurs were able to draw them up enough that the space over the top was big enough to run into. West Ham sits a bit deeper and will likely pass Kane off to midfielders as he drops deep. Instead, Tottenham is going to have to stretch the defense on the wing, with Sergio Reguilón and Matt Doherty – at least according to our projected XI – serving up crosses.
As Tottenham see more targets in the middle of the pitch in the form of Gareth Bale and Carlos Vinicius on the pitch with Harry Kane, those crosses are going to start coming a lot more often and also start seeming a lot more accurate. When only one striker is there, it is hard to target them, when there are multiple aerial threats, things change. Look for Vinicius to make an impact possible with Kane on the pitch.
Tottenham Defending the Counter
While Tottenham Hotspur continue to look more and more like a Jose Mourinho club, the defending has not yet caught up to the standard Mourinho usually sets. Tottenham have played ten games in all competitions and have only had one game with a team scoring zero goals – when Spurs were shut out by Everton on opening day.
Despite playing three Europa League qualifiers, Tottenham have just been unable to keep a clean sheet. When digging a bit deeper, two games would have been shutouts if not for penalty kicks in the opening and closing minute of the two matches. Additionally, Spurs have given up midgame penalty kicks and a couple goals off corners.
In other words, Tottenham is not that far off from being a solid defensive team, if not for these lapses. Lapses come from two things at this level fatigue, and complacency. Both fatigue and complacency come from the same thing, a lack of competition. With the blooding of Japhet Tanganga and the signing of three new defenders, Tottenham suddenly has the depth on defense to both rotate and keep everyone hungry for the best and most playing time. Let us hope that this competition and rotation lead to fewer errors and more shutouts.
Tottenham Keeping their Emotions in Check
There are a lot of storylines for Tottenham Hotspur in this game. From a league perspective, there is the opportunity to move into second place early in the season with a couple more winnable games before the next break. Then there is the idea that Jose Mourinho always beats David Moyes and the little competition and animosity that may bring to the match. Then there is the prospect of a couple debuts.
Okay, Gareth Bale is probably going to make his second debut with the club and all signs are pointing to Carlos Vinicius making his debut with the team as well. The fact that Spurs finally have a second, recognized, legitimate striker AND Gareth Bale is nearly insane. One might say it is a sign apocalypse is upon us with Spurs transfer window and the excite surrounding Bale in particular.
All that said, when push comes to shove, the match is derby and that is really the only storyline that matters. Bale and Vinicius both have braces as Harry Kane assists four more times and it will not matter if Spurs lose their emotions and lose the match 4-5. However, there is no crowd, which plays into the hands of Spurs who can use their own emotions to jump out early and get West Ham to come out of their shell and have a taste of their own counter attacking medicine.
If Tottenham can maintain their composure and get the movement, both off the ball and of the ball to get West Ham off their spots, Spurs can win the game. My guess is Tottenham does it just enough and leaves 3-1 winners, with Son, Kane, and Vinicius all scoring.