There’s no easy arch of explanation as to how exactly Tottenham now find themselves the hottest team in the Premier League.
Yes, prior to the season Tottenham were largely predicted to lodge a second title challenge, or at least make the Champions League.
This is a team, after all, that features Harry Kane, Toby Alderweireld, Hugo Lloris and Dele Alli. All the club had to do was hold on to their players and progress seemed assured.
In practice those predictions hasn’t always bore itself out. There were times in the season’s first half that Tottenham lacked ideas in front of goal. Defensive consistency kept them in the running — indeed, they stayed unbeaten in the league through the end of November — but overall the team appeared lopsided.
Mauricio Pochettino attempted a whole slew of shapes and team sheets to find some spark of creativity in his teams. While there were moments that resembled the highs of the prior season, for the most part Tottenham made due with draws and narrow wins.
Case in point: in the 13 Premier League matches Spurs played prior to December, only two were won by a margin of two or more goals. Though they only recorded one loss — a 2-1 result at Chelsea in late November — it wasn’t the kind of form that would propel them to the title.
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Part of the problem came with injuries. First went Érik Lamela, then Kane and finally Alderweireld. All three were players who Pochettino leaned on heavily last season, and without them in the starting XI Spurs appeared to struggle.
Lamela remains out, but at the start of December Spurs’ stars began to re-align. Kane and Alderweireld were healthy and, what’s more, Pochettino finally found a proper shape after months of tinkering.
The 3-4-2-1 wasn’t revolutionary — such formations had been in vogue in Italy for some time, and Chelsea under Antonio Conte discovered its value in the Premier League by late fall — but it seemed to work particularly well for Tottenham.
It put Tottenham’s greatest assets high up the pitch in the most dangerous areas, while also maintaining a defensive solidity. Kane, Alderweireld, Dele and Danny Rose all appeared to thrive in the new system.
Yet more injuries threatened to cripple Tottenham’s progress. First Jan Vertonghen then Rose succumbed to leg injuries. With both players filling rather unique roles in the 3-4-2-1 — Rose at wing-back and Vertonghen in a wide centre-back role — Pochettino no longer felt it possible to field the formation.
A (mercifully brief) dip in form was the direct result. Beginning in late January with a rickety performance against Manchester City in a 2-2 draw, continuing on in a draw and a narrow win against relegation-favored Sunderland and Middlesbrough, respectively, then culminating in a woeful 2-0 loss to Liverpool, the Tottenham of December appeared to have evaporated.
It’s no coincidence that this run of middling results coincided with a return to a more traditional 4-2-3-1 shape.
That was, of course, the tactical set that Pochettino rigidly conformed to last season, and it worked out well enough then. Without Lamela, though, Spurs returned to the same disconnectedness that plagued the first half of their season.
Vertonghen’s quick return to form, along with Ben Davies’ surprising adaptation to Rose’s aggressive role on the left flank, allowed Pochettino to return to the 3-4-2-1 just in time for an easily winnable string of matches. Indeed, Tottenham are unbeaten since the 4-0 demolition of Stoke on February 26th.
It would appear, on the surface, that Spurs’ peaks and valleys are intimately linked with Pochettino’s ability to field his team in a 3-4-2-1 formation. It’s in the shape where the club rediscovered its scoring groove. Were it not for its implementation in December and the subsequent run of impressive form, Tottenham might not be fighting for the title today.
Only, yet again, it is not that simple. Another injury created yet another wrinkle. Victor Wanyama’s back strain forced him off the pitch in the 44th minute of the April 1st visit to Burnley forced Pochettino adjust.
Eric Dier, previously enjoying some renewed success opposite Vertonghen in the back three, is the only other defensive midfield option. With Kevin Wimmer clearly on the way out, and Cameron Carter-Vickers still not ready for prime time, there was no choice but to abandoned the 3-4-2-1. Suddenly the 4-2-3-1 was back — again.
The prior time Spurs were forced away from their ideal formation, results suffered. This time, however, the club’s form has, if anything, improved. The tactics-as-form narrative almost immediately got through out the window.
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How were Tottenham able to essentially replicate their quality in what is a fairly substantially different playing style? Why did Spurs stumble in January/February, but then managed to outscore opponents 11-1 on aggregate in April?
Part of the answer comes down to quality of opposition. City and Liverpool obviously are tougher tests than Swansea and Bournemouth. Tactics don’t exist without context.
A second, perhaps bigger, component is the identity of the man in center of the park. Dier shocked last season with his ability in defensive midfield, and did so in a similar 4-2-3-1 formation as Pochettino has utilized over the last two weeks.
Which should not be mistaken for slighting Wanyama. The Kenyan is a dynamic and vastly important component in the 3-4-2-1 formation, where his mobility makes up for the reduced number in the backline.
Dier’s off-the-ball movement and vision fit the 4-2-3-1 much better, allowing for a solid base atop which the attack can feel free to move forward. Even without Lamela linking up play, Tottenham are finding that Heung-min Son’s overwhelming quality in attack more than makes up the difference.
All of which was about 900 words to explain a relatively simple idea: Tottenham’s biggest strength this season isn’t in some gimmicky tactical change, or even in the health of its best players. Rather, the takeaway from this season will be that Pochettino is making an adaptable, pragmatic side that can weather virtually any storm.
Far from lacking depth — a criticism many have tabled after the failures of Moussa Sissoko and Vincent Janssen this season — Spurs are stock full of options. Yes, some kinks demanded smoothing out, but how many other teams could lose their best defender, best full-back and highest scorer for prolonged periods over the course of the same season and still hunt for the title?
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It’s that resilience that makes Tottenham perhaps the best team in England at the moment. Much credit is owed to Pochettino, but some praise must go to a squad of players ready and able to make the changes needed to stay competitive.
While other teams bend over backwards to conform to their best players’ games, Tottenham — and Pochettino — build players to conform to the team’s highest potential.